A recent report released by the Carbon Tracker Initiative and the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, says that by the year 2035, electric cars could make up to 35% of the road transport market, and about 66% by the year 2050.
Well, I’m not saying that these numbers can’t be real, but giving the fact that a large number of car manufacturers are already interested today to produce electric vehicles as an alternative to the diesel and petrol-based vehicles, I can say that the report is rather pessimistic.
Let’s not forget that the year 2017 has just begun, so we have to wait another eighteen years (18), just to replace one third of the cars in the world with electric vehicles?
Um, we can’t do it faster?
Technology evolves much faster today, so I consider that the replacement can be made a little faster.
Let’s say that the year 2018, or even 2020, will be the year when the electric vehicles will truly invade the car market (and I mean affordable electric vehicles).
Let’s also remember the fact that many countries and major cities in the world have already banned diesel vehicles from their roads for several days, and they plan (in the future) to ban diesel vehicles for good.
We can’t forget the rising taxes for carbon emissions released by vehicles.
I know that such a massive number of vehicles (a two-year old report says that we have about 1.2 billion vehicles on the road) can’t be replaced very easily, but if we keep at least the today’s interest toward electric vehicles, I can say by the year 2025, the diesel and petrol-based vehicles will slowly become a forgotten part of a past based on pollution and disrespect for the environment.
Knowing about the bans imposed on diesel vehicles in several countries, I doubt that a person who wants to buy a new vehicle will opt for a diesel car, instead it will buy gasoline-based one, a hybrid or even an electric car.
The report also says that within a decade, the polluting fuels could lose about 10% of market share to solar power and electric cars.
The cost of solar has fallen 85% in seven years and will continue to fall, and the report considers that solar panels could represent a share of 23% in the global energy mix by 2040 and about 29% by the year 2050, while coal can be phased-out entirely by the middle of the century and leaving natural gas with a tiny share of 1% in the global power generation.
Well, natural gas can’t remain with only 1% share in the global energy mix, so I rather consider that the report is not very realistic because the actual trend toward greener energy sources is more than obvious.
Coal will remain the main energy source in many countries of the world for several years from now (even decades in some countries), oil will also remain an important energy source because is less polluting than coal, and natural gas is already considered a good replacement for coal and oil just because is a less polluting energy source from the three.
So, at least if we don’t discover a massive source of clean energy (nuclear fusion) by the middle of the century, we are somehow compelled to use fossil fuels along with renewable energy, to cover the energy demand of the world.
Cars instead could be replaced sooner with electric vehicles.
Showing its pessimistic point of view, the report also considers that cutting carbon emissions from the power sector (that pollutes) and road transport, may not be enough to achieve the international climate targets, so reducing the emissions released by other sectors such as heating buildings and especially the heavy industry will be also required.
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